Civil War in Iraq?

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BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A bomb that killed five people in a Shi'ite militia stronghold and a machinegun attack on a top Sunni politician fueled fears of civil war in Iraq on Thursday after a week of bloodshed that has left hundreds dead.

As more signs emerged that U.S.-backed efforts to form a unity government were in disarray over the Shi'ites' choice of Ibrahim al-Jaafari to stay on as premier, a blast ripped through a Baghdad market and gunmen killed a Sunni imam in the south.

Jaafari, under pressure from Sunnis, Kurds and others threatening to remove him, held meetings to end the standoff. Some opponents want him to step aside as the price for joining a coalition Washington sees as the best hope for stability.

(...)

Sectarian attacks since bombs destroyed a Shi'ite shrine in Samarra on February 22 have stalled the formation of an inclusive government Washington is banking on as a way to end violence and allow it start bringing over 130,000 U.S. troops home.

U.S. and Iraqi leaders have urged people to avoid a bloodbath between majority Shi'ite Muslims and Sunni Arabs that could further inflame Iraq, as well as the entire Middle East.

(...)

Jaafari's government has struggled to respond to violence that has killed at least 478 people, by a conservative tally from Iraqi officials issued by the U.S. military.

He has ordered thousands of Iraqi troops and police onto the streets of Baghdad, backed by U.S. soldiers, but their effectiveness is untested and their loyalties are uncertain in the face of sectarian militias to which some once belonged.

Fearful of reprisal attacks, some Baghdad residents have thrown up barricades. Others queue up to leave altogether.

(...)

U.S. and Iraqi leaders accuse al Qaeda militants of bombing the shrine to drag Shi'ites into a civil war that would wreck U.S. plans. Some Sunnis say Iranian-backed Shi'ites did it to justify reprisals against the Sunni Arab minority.

Source: reuters.com

The situation in Iraq is escalating. Many argue that a civil war threatening the whole gulf region is already underway and the U.S. seem to have no means to confine the spreading violence.

What do you think? Was the U.S.-led campaign in Iraq a failure? Is there any chance for the newly formed democracy in Iraq to succeed? Should Jafaari step down to save the little stability left?

I think these events served as the groundwork for a civil war in Iraq.

Whoever bombed the Shiites shrines had that in mind. There is no other explanation.

CIA knew and warned the Bush admin but neocons said 'no fuck you we're going in'.

Originally Posted by Cal

CIA knew and warned the Bush admin but neocons said 'no fuck you we're going in'.

.. O....Kay...

Well, now that we got the idiot that all political palace threads get in them...

Personally, I think it just advanced what was bound to happen. Let's admit it, the Middle East has never been stable. If they aren't bombing places, they're.... bombing... places.

It was bound to happen in the next hundred years. I think that this just cut all the pussy-footing that'd happen beforehand out of the picture.

I sure hope so. Anything that make's it easier to get to the oil.

!

Honestly, I don't believe democracy ever stood a chance in Iraq. A new political system only works when the people themselves decide they need it, and sometimes that's not even enough. So, it doesn't suprise me that the situation is escalating.

I do believe it is very likely that Iraq could collapse into Civil War (the first chance they have at freedom, there is going to be splitting or a coup) and the US can't do much to prevent or stop it. It's up to the Iraqis whether or not their country remains stable.
If it does degenerate into Civil War, we could see a situation very similar to the evacuation of Saigon at the end of the Vietnam War.

I dont think the us invasion to iraq was ever actually needed... if it was for freedom as they say, then they should have had to invade Cuba, Iran and North Korea, as well as a few african and asian nations... bush's greed is being seen in full action in this senseless war

Originally Posted by Mr. Danielsard

I dont think the us invasion to iraq was ever actually needed... if it was for freedom as they say, then they should have had to invade Cuba, Iran and North Korea, as well as a few african and asian nations... bush's greed is being seen in full action in this senseless war

Actually the freedom argument only became the primary cause once word got around there was no WMD (or concrete links to Al-Queda).

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Well, now that we got the idiot that all political palace threads get in them...

Well, where's my logic going wrong? The CIA fulfils a geopolitical diagnostician role, among others, in its being a US government consultant. It's pretty obvious that the Bush administration's not completely on the same page, and that Cheney and company put inordinate pressure on Bush to persue certain factional agendas that can very well described as neoconservative.

Is it more that you just don't like the sound of my summary?

What I don't understand is why Bush has to make change. Iraq wasn't really theatening us with Saddam in power, our ports don't need to be sold to the United Arab Emirates. Why does Bush insist?

Maybe Saddam was a defective chink in the mail that bottlenecks Chinese oil access, thus delaying their becoming the second superpower on the block.

Well, not really defective, more unreliable, perhaps. Much safer to install a relatively predictable, goadable government. The Bush admin probably considered a few years of civil unrest a fair price in exchange for such security.

There was a recent article in the New York Times in regards to this topic. The problem is that neighboring arab nations may respond to the call of aid from the different ethnic groups. With the Shiite Irani people to the north and the Sunni Saudi people to the south, there is a lot of room for disaster in-between. For now, the best thing we can hope for is that Iran does not get a means of producing nuclear weapons as they would be one of the largest threats in the event of a full-scale middle east war.

Originally Posted by neothe0ne

Iraq wasn't really theatening us with Saddam in power.

Not from a military standpoint, but economically he was. Saddam made the mistake of opening a oil trading market in euros, threatening the supremacy of the petrodollar. He had to go. For more examples; See Iran.

Originally Posted by neothe0ne

our ports don't need to be sold to the United Arab Emirates. Why does Bush insist?

It could be collateral. For a attack on Iran perhaps? Naw couldn't be. I don't know what possessed me to think of that!

Originally Posted by neothe0ne

our ports don't need to be sold to the United Arab Emirates. Why does Bush insist?

Why did they need to be sold to the British?

It's actually probably best they end up in a civil war. These guys just got out of a totalarian government, and you expect them to up and move to democracy just like that? It seems the current administration is at least hinting at the efforts in Iraq akin to the American Revoultion, but there are key differences.

1) Americans wanted to change (see Acro-nym's post)
2) Americans didn't have a ton of factions who wanted to kill each other
3) Americans weren't Muslim

On point #3, what I mean is, does the Muslim religion even leave a chance for democracy? If someone disagrees with you religiously, he is an infidel and must be killed. Democracy is more or less based around the principles of freedom isn't it? Correct me if Im wrong, but I figure the religion the majority of Iraqi's hold to is just in-hospitable to a democratic system.

Even if they could pull a democratic system, even America had to go through a civil war eventually. If anything, a civil war will end up causing the various factions to see the mess they've gotten themselves into, and will only strengthen them and foster a new enviorment for a democratic system.

Or neighboring countrys could take advantage of it and attack. That's even more likely.

I think there are moderate Muslims out there. The US probably has a couple million of them and you don't see reporters getting kidnapped from the Fox News headquaters.

Originally Posted by RacinReaver

I think there are moderate Muslims out there. The US probably has a couple million of them and you don't see reporters getting kidnapped from the Fox News headquaters.

Sure there are, but the extremists seem to be getting in the way alot as of late.

I just don't see democracy happening over there untill the Iraqi's get up and start honestly trying to deal with the crap going on over there themselves. The Iraqi militia is a nice first step, but untill just about every Iraqi is actively doing something, such as tipping off American and Iraqi forces to insurgents and such, I feel were just stagnating the inevitable by staying over there crying, "Democracy, DO YOU USE IT" to the Iraqis.

Originally Posted by KrazyTaco

Correct me if Im wrong, but I figure the religion the majority of Iraqi's hold to is just in-hospitable to a democratic system.

I understand that countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mali and Senegal, among others, all have huge Muslim majorities and functioning democratic systems of government.

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Democracy is more or less based around the principles of freedom isn't it?

Democracy is based on the principle of governments being selected through the votes of an enfranchised segment of the population; freedom isn't a requirement.