NEW HAMPSHIRE BLOWDOWN BE THERE BE THERE BE THERE

I don't know why everyone is calling this a win for Hillary. 2-3 months ago, she would have been able to win New Hampshire going away. The fact that she only won by a couple of percentage points shows how absolutely weak her campaign is. Obama's strong showing, I think, pretty much solidifies him as the candidate.

She's still alive in the race, and that's about all that should be taken from last night.

Well, I think they're calling it a win for Hillary in the strictest sense of she won New Hampshire. I don't think anyone is saying this is a high point for her in the overall election. Hell, just watch the Republicans scrambling to make a run at Obama and not Clinton, like they have been for months. That pretty much tells you who's the front runner in this little race.

It's all in how you spin it. Walter Mondale was able to win Super Tuesday in 1984 simply by winning the Georgia primary and spinning it as the "comeback of the year". It didn't matter that Gary Hart won seven of the nine contests that day; leading up to it, it had been declared that Jimmy Carter's vice president losing Jimmy Carter's home state would have spelled doom for his campaign. Mondale's campaign spun that to mean if he won Georgia, he was on his way to the nomination.

He won, and he was.

Also, a lot of people seem to forget that Lyndon Johnson won the 1968 New Hampshire primary, not Eugene McCarthy.

Originally Posted by Denicalis

Well, I think they're calling it a win for Hillary in the strictest sense of she won New Hampshire. I don't think anyone is saying this is a high point for her in the overall election. Hell, just watch the Republicans scrambling to make a run at Obama and not Clinton, like they have been for months. That pretty much tells you who's the front runner in this little race.

I think I saw Chris Mathews describe New Hampshire as a "comeback" for Hillary, but I guess he was talking about a comeback from Iowa.

Originally Posted by Lord Styphon

Also, a lot of people seem to forget that Lyndon Johnson won the 1968 New Hampshire primary, not Eugene McCarthy.

I completely agree in spin being king, however, please humour a poor foreigner and explain the significance of Johnson beating McCarthy in 68?

Originally Posted by Denicalis

I completely agree in spin being king, however, please humour a poor foreigner and explain the significance of Johnson beating McCarthy in 68?

The significance wasn't that Johnson won, even when his name wasn't on the ballot and he won with write-in votes. The significance was that McCarthy won 42% of the vote over an imcumbent president. This led to Johnson pulling out of the race in favor of Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and led to the entrance of one Senator Robert F. Kennedy of New York.

The impression was that the New Hampshire primary result was a devastating loss for Johnson. Which it was, even though he actually won it.

Originally Posted by Lord Styphon

For the Democrats, Michigan. Hillary will win by default, since the rest of the Democratic field is boycotting the primary.

I hope the media doesn't cover whatever she wins by heavily. I can't imagine for a second why a Democrat would go vote in Michigan or Florida this year.

Incumbent presidents are supposed to be shoe-ins for the nom. When 42% of the voting populace is against you in your own party it's a good time to hang your hat.

The Republican nomination is still wide open. According to the BBC, Giuliani chose to sit out the early primaries and focus on Florida and Super Tuesday. If he spent any time or money in Iowa or NH it wasn't much, nor did it amount to it.

The Democrats are the party to watch though. Reading up on some reactions to Clinton on progressive blogs like Alternet is telling. They absolutely despise Clinton. The only thing that might be keeping progressives in the Democratic Party is their hatred of Bush. Ahhh, I can only hope.

Originally Posted by Watts

The Republican nomination is still wide open. According to the BBC, Giuliani chose to sit out the early primaries and focus on Florida and Super Tuesday. If he spent any time or money in Iowa or NH it wasn't much, nor did it amount to it.

The Democrats are the party to watch though. Reading up on some reactions to Clinton on progressive blogs like Alternet is telling. They absolutely despise Clinton. The only thing that might be keeping progressives in the Democratic Party is their hatred of Bush. Ahhh, I can only hope.

Actually, Giuliani spent the third most amount of money of any candidate in NH, which is why it was such a huge disappointment for his camp to be duking it out with Ron Paul for "also ran" status.

That'll teach Giuliani's campaign to ship volunteers in from New York and not tell them to leave their Yankees apparel at home.

Originally Posted by Lord Styphon

That'll teach Giuliani's campaign to ship volunteers in from New York and not tell them to leave their Yankees apparel at home.

YANKEES. HOW YA DOIN!?

As a Red Sox fan, I find this hilarious. And I'm going to tell a story about why they should have known better, and I'll relate it to 9/11 so Rudy doesn't feel slighted.

So, two days after 9/11 (11/11, NEVER FORGET) this NYFD chief is at ground zero giving an update talk, and there are people heading up and down the rubble behind him. It's so close to the time, that we all still really feel for New York. The country is coming together, there's a lot of sympathy and empathy and caring going around. This guy is fighting back tears while talking, and we see this dude walking down the rubble behind him. Something catches his eye and the NYFD dude turns around and yells: "Hey! HEY! SOX SUCK!" and starts laughing. Some dude was wearing a Red Sox patch on his jacket and this guy stopped talking about 9/11 to heckle him for it.

Yankees vs Red Sox is serious business, yo. Rudy's camp should have known better.

Originally Posted by Denicalis

Actually, Giuliani spent the third most amount of money of any candidate in NH, which is why it was such a huge disappointment for his camp to be duking it out with Ron Paul for "also ran" status.

Yes, and in national polls Giuliani is losing his lead. Disappointments aside, in terms of delegates there is no clear front-runner. I doubt Giuliani will drop out before Super Tuesday. People are counting him out way too early.

But it's not like the Republicans have much of a chance of winning in '08. That'll be a surprise victory.

Originally Posted by Watts

But it's not like the Republicans have much of a chance of winning in '08. That'll be a surprise victory.

That depends on what is going to happen this year. Trust me, it's not so much the candidates people vote for, it's how they react to whatever happens, may it be the recession everyone is waiting for, may it be an incident with Iran, may it be another terrorist attack, you name it.

I wouldn't really bet my money on the Democrats. Not yet.

Yeah, but something good would have to happen for a Republican to keep control.

And nothing good is on the horizon.

Originally Posted by BlueMikey

Yeah, but something good would have to happen for a Republican to keep control.

And nothing good is on the horizon.

Wouldn't something really awful happen send the nation's undecided scurrying back to the protective arms of militant right wing daddy? I mean, it's what 9/11 did, right?

Originally Posted by Denicalis

Wouldn't something really awful happen send the nation's undecided scurrying back to the protective arms of militant right wing daddy? I mean, it's what 9/11 did, right?

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both."
-Benjamin Franklin
You're right, but I'd like to think--I certainly hope--that the nation has learned from this mistake.

Originally Posted by Denicalis

Wouldn't something really awful happen send the nation's undecided scurrying back to the protective arms of militant right wing daddy? I mean, it's what 9/11 did, right?

I think we'd need another decade for that to be a possibility.

If something happened now, people would blame the Republicans for letting it happen, which didn't happen in 9/11.