Werewolf 17: Grim Prophecies - THE KING IS DEAD

Um, yeah, I'm calling massive bullshit on that and changing my vote to LZ, who in my eyes right now is pretty clearly the spy or the demon. I'm a hunter, so he probably DID check me night one but didn't kill me cause, you know, I'd kill his ass right back. This ploy, though, works out great for bad because if I'm lynched, there goes my ability, and if a vigilante kills me, good gets double fucked.

Since he was the only vote for me both days, I'm thinking he's probably the spy, since the werewolves could have turned out more votes than that whereas a block of three voting together would be awful damn suspicious. The mafia has been pretty fucking sad this game so far, and it can't hurt to take out their eyes.

I'm driving all day tomorrow, so don't take silence as some admission of guilt. I'll be able to post again tomorrow evening at the earliest.

nutty: My main reason for outing myself is to kill bad guys, and simply voting for knkwzrd has no effect. I think it would blow cock if we fuck up both the vote AND night actions this time, and I'm not entirely convinced Ryuu or Amariyot are bad. You suggested leaving Ryuu to the vig as if he were a sure thing, but rather than let that happen I'd rather just hand over the "sure thing" and continue debate on Ryuu/Amariyot.

Jochie, I suppose you can choose not to believe Zerg and thus not believe me, but you have to realize that that would be a pretty ballsy con that I'm sure no bad guy would ever want to risk. They tend to stay back, not jump into the open.

fake edit: knkwzrd is lying.

Originally Posted by LZ

nbut rather than let that happen I'd rather just hand over the "sure thing" and continue debate on Ryuu/Amariyot.

The only sure thing here is that you're the Demon or the Spy.

Taken by itself, LZ's story already sounds pretty fishy (because you know, it involves Zerg, and I wouldn't trust him if he was on my own team ), but add in Knk's counter theory and it sounds pretty shady. Right now my vote goes to LZ, and he's gonna have to do a hell of a lot more if he even hopes to change it.

Well there are certainly some more compelling reasons than those against Ryuu floating around now. It's just a matter of trying to figure out who you trust.

Zerg could be a shaman, or he could be doing nothing more than trying to buy himself some safety from a vigilante. LZ could be a seer, but it's pretty convenient for him to be able to corroborate Zerg's story like that and try to point the finger at someone else, too.

Hmm.

I have the feeling that a lot of people in the thread are waiting for things to shake out a little bit more between LZ and knk.

I question LZ's timing (perhaps Ryuu is his partner and he voted for him as a diversionary tactic or is in league with Zerg somehow), but I also wonder why knk so easily dropped his role (stupid mistake, lying, etc?).

I'm definitely not ready to throw my vote down just yet. This has gotten interesting.

Well, on the one hand it sucks when a hunter owns up his role because he's pretty much useless after that point, but I guess if the alternative is getting lynched and wasting it, at least he can continue to make votes and help lynch evil guys after that point.

I'm voting for Ramoth. Only because I'm too busy to actually read what's going down and I don't have any real reason to vote for him.

Originally Posted by Jochie

Also, how funny that Zerg changed his vote right after I pointed out his flimsy reasoning. How humorous and comical, as well.

I have said many times that my vote is based on circumstantial evidence. I don't see why it's supposed to be humorous or comical, unless you are trying to get at something.

Here's where we're at. Obviously, either LZ or knkwzrd is lying.

If LZ is lying, then he is not a seer. If knkwzrd is lying, then he is not a hunter.

At this point, I'd rather lynch knk than LZ. Why?

If we lynch knk and find out he's a hunter, then we know LZ is up to no good, and thus the remaining vigilante will have a clear target for tonight. We will be down a hunter.

If we lynch LZ and find out he's a seer, then we know knk was lying, and is a werewolf. While the remaining vigilante will have a clear target for tonight, we will be down a seer.

I'd rather lose a hunter than a seer, since the hunter has the potential to take out the vigilante. A confirmed seer can do quite a bit more damage to evil than a hunter.

Oh, right right right. I see how you think it makes more sense to save the one who's defending you for no good reason. Unfortunately, the gut says you're lying and so is LZ.

Sticking with Garr, simply because I don't know whether or not I should vote for LZ or Ryuu. So it's neither

That was a really weird move by LZ. To out yourself this early and in the way he did it suggests either a slightly retarded badly thought out plan or an attempt by an evil player to kill a good guy. I think if I'd been a seer and checked Zerg, the best way to support him would be follow his vote for Ryuu and then get some more info on those who didn't follow the trend.

LZ is either bad or a liability so I'm changing my vote to him.

Originally Posted by ramoth

I have the feeling that a lot of people in the thread are waiting for things to shake out a little bit more between LZ and knk.

I don't know what to say. knk pretty much posted a complete fabrication. All I can say is, it'd be pretty goddamn retarded of a spy/devil to put it all on the line and sacrifice himself to kill a hunter during the day. Supposing I was a spy/demon, and I got knk lynched and he's a hunter, I'd undoubtedly be dead that following night. Wow, great help I'd be doing for the bad team!

It is maybe 15 hours before the deadline, with the following gentlemen left to vote: Bigblah, Domino, Dullenplain, Guru, Juanzen, Kaze, ramoth, Yeoldebutchere

To summarize for those who don't care to re-read one page worth of posts, there are three distinct bandwagons:

1. Ryuu - he missed Day 1 voting, and the 2-member Mafia missed the kill. Coincidence?
2. Amayirot Akago - Werewolf newbie Rollins was ruthlessly killed on night 1 by the Mafia. There is an unwritten GFF rule that new players not be killed during the first night. A werewolf n00b would presumably not know about this rule, and a few think Amayirot might be that n00b.
3. LZ - LZ is claiming to be a seer, having checked knkwzrd (werewolf) and Zergrinch (self-confessed shaman). A few do not buy that story, questioning the necessity of a seer outing themselves.
4. Only two people voted against knkwzrd, the person accused of being a werewolf by LZ. knkwzrd claims to be a hunter, and that LZ is actually a devil or spy.
5. Scattered votes (1 each) abound for a lurker, Garr, and ramoth.

Now, decide.

Alright, I have to go work until 5 PM est. So, while I can't predict any future arguments, I hope you all take into account how unlikely it is for a bad team to undertake such a plan as knkwzrd suggests. Because wow that would be a retarded plan.

And hey, even if you think I'm a liability to good guys for doing this, it would NOT be in your favor to lynch a true seer. Come on now.

Originally Posted by LZ

Because wow that would be a retarded plan.

Not unlike a Seer revealing his role when there's not really a reason to, eh?

Originally Posted by LZ

And hey, even if you think I'm a liability to good guys for doing this, it would NOT be in your favor to lynch a true seer. Come on now.

I'm in favor of ignoring both you and knkwzrd today, since you're only stirring up more confusion. If you'd shown up and said, "I'm a seer and I know Ryuu is a Mason," then I'd be inclined to pay attention to you, but you offered no information on our current choices at the time, and instead stirred things up even more. Why not just save the info on knkwzrd until tomorrow first thing, when we hadn't already started a bandwagon?

Deadlines getting closer and closer, and I don't have the time to read through everything in detail. But I am going to vote for LZ simply because I think he could be telling porkies.

I really see no good evidence to think that Ryuu or Amayirot have reason to be voted against. I don't like the fishy floundering of LZ, however.

So that's where my vote goes.

LZ is not no god damn evil spy, you idiots. The evil spy would want nothing better than to hide from everyone for the entire game. Why would he stand out on day 2?!

You guys are morons.